FINAL 2026 OSCAR PREDICTIONS

 

Sunday, March 15th will be the 98th gathering of Hollywood royalties greatest self-congratulations and my favorite holiday of the year, the Oscars. Like last year Conan O'Brien will master the ceremony and like last year there are several awards that are completely wide open. In fact, I can confidently say that I don't recall a year that is more unresolved at this stage than this one. Best Picture especially has a wire to wire front-runner but the momentum has seemed to shift and we could be staring down an unprecedented surprise. This year features the strongest 1-2 punch in some time at the top of the ballot in One Battle After Another and Sinners. Between the two of them, they will probably leave few precious scraps to the other hopefuls, but how will the big one shake out? An argument can be made the Sinners' Sweep is more likely than a One Battle sweep, and the PTA fanboys like myself are holding on with white knuckles to see if he can bring this horse into stable. I'm sure Warner Brothers is really sweating the late Sinners push. Oh, wait... Across the acting categories we get to see if Timothee Chalamet has made himself a legitimate pariah, if Amy Madigan's second kick at the after nearly 4 decades works out better than her first, and if Sean Penn can win a third Oscar without having a shred of good will from the industry toward him as a person. It is going to be glorious, and messy, and overlong at points, but give them a break, it's only their 98th try! So let's celebrate movies before the go the way of the dodo, ballet, and opera. We can all give the WB a nice send off as they ride off into the sunset with a truckload of gold statues. Join me this Sunday at 8pm eastern on ABC and HULU and hopefully use these picks to help you win your poll! Here is my bet guess at how it all shakes out. 

 

 

 

BEST PICTURE: 

Bugonia

F1

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

 

WILL WIN: One Battle After Another

MIGHT STEAL: Sinners

SHOULD WIN: One Battle After Another

SNUBBED: This is a really solid 10, but could we have squeezed No Other Choice or It Was Just an Accident in here instead?

ANALYSIS: We have a classic showdown brewing here between two worthy winners. One Battle and Sinners are locked in a really fascinating dead heat. I've never seen a wire to wire front-runner that won Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and ALL of the Guilds feel so vulnerable. But Sinners is making that happen for One Battle After Another. Sinners' only real feather in the cap was SAG Ensemble, but the reaction and seemingly profuse love for the picture is making this a race. Not to mention a record breaking 16 nominations from the Academy and a surging leading man that just stole the SAG. I really don't know. Part of me thinks that Sinners won at the more "normie" circuit like the SAGs but the more discerning members of the Academy will side with One Battle over the vampire horror film. But 16 nominations and all that momentum? One Battle really hasn't missed and it has won heads up with Sinners all throughout critics groups, guilds, and the BAFTA outside of SAG Ensemble, and yet it seems primed to be upset. I'm still taking One Battle, but would not be surprised one bit if it is sinners instead. Which would be something else because it would be the second year in a row that Best Picture winner matched my pick for best movie of the year. That has never happened before. No other film has a legitimate shot at all. As far as the crop of 10, it's real good. We simply don't need Formulaic 1 in here though, and I would have loved to see that go to It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice or even Weapons for that matter. Could have had another record with 3 foreign films nominated, but cars go vroom, I guess. 

 

BEST DIRECTOR:

Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler - Sinners

Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao - Hamnet

 

WILL WIN: Paul Thomas Anderson

MIGHT STEAL: Ryan Coogler

SHOULD WIN: Paul Thomas Anderson

SNUBBED: This is probably the correct five. I might personally tinker with one (Park Chan Wook), but no one feels particularly slighted

ANALYSIS: While Best Picture is neck and neck between Sinners and One Battle, this part is pretty well decided. The greatest director of the 21st century is finally going to be an Oscar winner whether his film carried the top prize or not. A case can be made for Coogler riding a Sinners tidal wave, but I think this one is safe. Zhao has shown up on some leaked ballots but there's just no way despite what I thought was incredible work. 

 

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

Jessie Buckley - Hamnet

Rose Byrne - If I had Legs I'd Kick You

Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value

Emma Stone - Bugonia

 

WILL WIN: Jessie Buckley

MIGHT STEAL: Rose Byrne

SHOULD WIN: Jessie Buckley

SNUBBED: An argument can be made for Chase Infiniti, Amanda Seyfried, and Jennifer Lawrence and I would likely prefer one of them in there instead of Hudson, but this is fine. 

ANALYSIS: Rose Byrne gives one of the best performances in recent memory, unfortunately it is only the second best performance of the year. Not all years are created equally unfortunately. I think both of those performances are better than anything in the Lead Actor category, but alas, these are the rules. Buckley gives a true all timer here. This is Sophie's Choice type-shit. Clean sweep for the major awards bodies upcoming and very deserved. Quick shout out to Emma Stone who is completely flying under the radar here, but is also incredibly in Bugonia. She is a 2-time winner already and this could have been three is the field wasn't so damn impressive this time around. 

 

 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

      Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme

      Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another

      Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon

      Michael B Jordan - Sinners

      Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent

 

WILL WIN: Michael B Jordan

MIGHT STEAL: Timothee Chalamet

SHOULD WIN: Timothee Chalamet 

SNUBBED: Jesse Plemons

ANALYSIS: I know there's only 5 spots but Jesse Plemons has to be in here somehow. But as it stands this is a super compelling race. Timmy was the original front runner but has run aground over the last month. I believe it is the best work in the category but that isn't always the only thing that matters and of course, acting (an art) is subjective. Jordan seems to be the unlikely benefactor of Chalamet's stumble. He is terrific in Sinners, but this would soundly be a surprising winner when looking back in years to come. Not because the work isn't good, but because it just isn't the type of performance that often wins this prize. He is a cog in a true ensemble and while maybe technically a lead, isn't even the protagonist of the story by conventional literary means. The other movies hinge on the central performances way more than Sinners relies on MBJ's. But this would be a fun win for a someone that seems authentically well liked and respected in the industry. He is popular in a contest where that still matters somewhat. If I am predicted Sinners to fall short of their late surge for Best Picture, I think I can predict that it might just pick up this one instead. 

 

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan - Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners

Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another 

 

WILL WIN: I have no idea... Wunmi Mosaku

MIGHT STEAL: Teyana Taylor or Amy Madigan

SHOULD WIN: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

SNUBBED: Odessa A'zion 

ANALYSIS: I'm not sure I've ever been more perplexed by an acting award in my life. The precursors did nothing but muddy the waters. Everyone has some hardware. Taylor wins for Globe, Mosaku for BAFTA, and Madigan for Critics Choice and SAG, which might make someone think if Madigan has two, why wouldn't it be her. And it could, and might well be. SAG and CCA tend to go with more populist picks that are also more receptive to genre biases. Sometimes for the better. But the stuffier shows picked supporting turns from the big dogs and I am inclined to think the Oscars will do the same. Taylor could swing back around, but the Sinners momentum has be thinking Wunmi could take it. It should be said that she has really only won in the UK which is where she is from. I have no idea. All I know is that Lilleaas actually gives the best work in the category, and she has no shot. Odessa A'zion also should be here because she goes toe to toe with Chalamet in every shared scene in Marty Supreme and she is absolute lightning rod. Love her work there. Good for Elle Fanning. Becoming a fine young actor and also deserves this recognition. 

 

 

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:     

Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein

      Delroy Lindo - Sinners

      Sean Penn - One Battle After Another

      Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value 

 

WILL WIN: Less confused but still not confident... Sean Penn

MIGHT STEAL: Stellan Skarsgard

SHOULD WIN: Sean Penn

SNUBBED: Paul Mescal

ANALYSIS: When I saw One Battle After Another in theatres I walked away certain that Sean Penn had sewn up the Oscar. I thought it was the most fun and arguably best performance of the year. As the season wore on, others threw their hats into the ring and pulled out a few wins but as the finish line neared BAFTA and SAG came back around to what was probably always true. Sean Penn should win this award. I really love all of these performances. Stellan Skarsgard's career narrative and impressive performance are a viable challenger. Delroy Lindo was the feel good nod of nomination morning as far as I'm concerned, but as happy as I am for him, I don't think he can overcome either of those juggernaut performances. I would have loved to see Mescal here even though he's really a co-lead in Hamnet, but he really might be the best actor of his generation right now. Another top drawer performance from him here. Benicio can enjoy his few small beers because he won't need to be delivering a speech, but he was just magnificent. 

 

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Bugonia (Will Tracy)

Frankenstein (Guillermo Del Toro)

Hamnet (Chloe Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell

One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)

Train Dreams (Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar) 

 

WILL WIN: One Battle After Another

MIGHT STEAL: Hamnet? maybe?

SHOULD WIN: One Battle After Another

SNUBBED: This is a fair 5. I would want No Other Choice over Frankenstein, but no real complaints.

ANALYSIS:  Paul Thomas Anderson has 11 Oscar Nomination and 0 wins. That will almost certainly come to an end this Sunday. But the first time he touches the statuette will likely not be for directing but for his screenplay. This is fitting. Around the category this is really nice work. I didn't love Frankenstein as much as everyone else seemed to, but it was a really good adaptation of the classic story. Train Dreams is a beautifully lyrical work that matched the gorgeous cinematography well. The granular dialogue in Bugonia is wildly impressive and Hamnet crushed like a boulder and wonderfully extracts the bard's prose a wisely judicious amount. Great category, but One Battle is the head of the class.

 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Blue Moon (Robert Kaplow)

It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi and Nader Saivar, Shadmehr, Mehdi Mahmoudian)

Marty Supreme (Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie)

Sentimental Value (Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier)

Sinners (Ryan Coogler)

 

WILL WIN: Sinners

MIGHT STEAL: Sentimental Value

SHOULD WIN: Sentimental Value

SNUBBED: Sorry Baby is excellent and I would have loved to see it here, but what comes out?

ANALYSIS: I fear some of these choices are starting to read like I'm hating on Sinners, but I assure you I really enjoy and appreciate the film. That said, Sentimental Value is unquestionably the better screenplay for me, if only narrowly. I think it's the best screenplay of the year, period. That said, Coogler is going to win this one for his fantastic and sneaky-deep Sinners script. I love this result because its a great movie that deserved rewarded and this one goes straight to the pilot of the vessel. 

 

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Frankenstein 

Marty Supreme 

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Train Dreams 

 

WILL WIN: Sinners

MIGHT STEAL: One Battle or Train Dreams

SHOULD WIN: One Battle, Train Dreams or Sinners

SNUBBED: Hamnet, Bugonia, Wake Up Dead Man, and Especially No Other Choice are all more worthy than Frankenstein here. 

ANALYSIS: Technical categories are usually pretty well decided by ceremony time, but this one and a few others still fell very up in the air. This particular category is always a slugfest because even some bad movies look great these days. Marty Supreme is good enough to win in many years and it's probably 4th here. One Battle, Sinners and Train Dreams are all outstanding shoots. Sinners just recently took the cinematographers guild which makes this even closer, and I also think sunk Train Dreams' hopes. Its between Sinners and One Battle and I think Sinners will pull this one narrowly for two under-the-radar reasons. One, Autumn Durald Arkapaw would be the first woman to ever win the award, which sounds crazy to say about the 98th ceremony. And two, because people in the industry whisper the PTA actually kinda sorta does a lot of his own cinemtography and that a win for Michael Bauman, might be somewhat fraudulent. But that didn't stop the BAFTA so I don't know. Writing in Sinners with pencil nonetheless. 

 

 

BEST EDITING:

F1

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

 

WILL WIN: One Battle After Another

MIGHT STEAL: Sinners or F1

SHOULD WIN: One Battle After Another

SNUBBED: Love this 5

ANALYSIS:  First off, good for the Academy for recognizing the subtle genius of Sentimental Value's edit. That said One Battle should and likely will take this one. However, if we are primed for a surprise Sinners sweep then I assume this would come along. And you can unfortunately never count out the loud car movie ever in editing either. But One Battle's pacing and innovation within the edit should be too good to mess up, but I have seen worse things happen in this historically topsy turvy category. 

 

 

BEST CASTING:

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sinners 

 

WILL WIN: Sinners

MIGHT STEAL: One Battle After Another

SHOULD WIN: Marty Supreme or Sinners

SNUBBED: No Notes

ANALYSIS: First year for this award so we didn't really know what kind of achievement they were looking for here, but I think they absolutely nailed this. This would be my 5. Discoveries, pitch perfect leads, large ensembles, bit players that elevate the overall product. The Academy on its first try knows what great casting is. Sinners is going to win this and that is awesome. The Miles Caton find, the deep ensemble, and the rising stars, this was spot on. Marty Supreme might be a smidge even more inspired in my opinion but its very close. Timmy's best role, the Paltrow comeback, the stunt casting, the Kevin O'Leary of it all (unfortunately), its fantastic casting and the Safdies are known for their bold casting choices. But therein lies the problem. They are known for their casting for bad reasons too. The tip of the spear of the Safdie controversy is directly tied to their unorthodox casting decisions. I can't imagine the Academy is looking to reward that amidst an ongoing situation. So sinners I think wins safely.

 

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amelie or the Character of Rain

Zootopia 2

 

WILL WIN: KPop Demon Hunters

MIGHT STEAL: Zootopia 2

SHOULD WIN: KPop Demon Hunter

SNUBBED: Demon Slayer and Chainsaw Man come highly recommended

ANALYSIS: I personally was lagging with animation this year, but everyone who's opinion I trust on the matter call this crop a disaster. Elio completely unnecessary with obvious better choices available. More anime bias. But at the end of the day it feels like all's well that ends well with KPop taking home the win and a deserved one. Present the award early and let the kiddos get a smile before bed.

 

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:

The Secret Agent

It Was Just an Accident

Sentimental Value

Sirat

The Voice of Hind Rajab

 

WILL WIN: Sentimental Value

MIGHT STEAL: The Secret Agent

SHOULD WIN: Sentimental Value

SNUBBED: Yeah, I'll say it again, why isn't No Other Choice here? 

ANALYSIS: This really could have been a Neon Studio sweep. Very impressive. It also happens to be five outstanding movies. It's almost as if you relegate the entire world into a category with five slots, you get a good group. As far as the race, Best Picture usually culls the herd and often times just anoints a de facto winner. But here we have two strong contenders in Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent, both nominated for the top prize. Looking at the overall haul of nominations it seems the Academy is higher on Sentimental Value than any other voting body, That's enough to push it over the finish line for me, fully acknowledging that its also what I want to happen. 

 

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

The Alabama Solution

Come See Me in the Good Light

Cutting Through Rocks

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

The Perfect Neighbor

 

WILL WIN: The Perfect Neighbor

MIGHT STEAL: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

SHOULD WIN: The Perfect Neighbor

SNUBBED:  This category always has head-scratchers. I like what I saw, but they could have gone any number of ways.

ANALYSIS: My wife watched the Perfect Neighbor because she loves crime documentaries and it was highly popular. I was dismissive of it being another true crime doc that was serviceable escapism. About halfway through it stole my attention and it was just outstanding. Mr, Nobody Against Putin won the BAFTA but I just think the appetite for another Russia story is waning, and maybe more-so here stateside. I'll take the body-cam intrigue of The Perfect Neighbor here.

 

 

EDUCATED GUESSES

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

 

WILL WIN: Frankenstein

ANALYSIS:  Del Toro does not miss on his Production designs. I feel like this was the best best achievement of Frankenstein which I was largely lukewarm on. The sets are gorgeous. I think the other choices are also solid overall. Sinners has a couple nice exteriors before it settles in to mostly a chamber drama. Hamnet it beautiful and period appropriate. Great use of light. The One Battle nomination is a great shout out to modern set pieces. Not everything always has to be a period piece. Marty Supreme has incredibly underrated production design and I'm elated it's here. Boy did the Academy hate Wicked: For Good. Absolutely could be here, and as always, Wes Anderson's Phoenician Scheme could have been in the conversation as well. It seems as though the Academy wanted to stick exclusively with prominent players this time around.  

 

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme 

Sinners

 

WILL WIN: Frankenstein

ANALYSIS: I think Frankenstein will clean up a scattering of techs, but I think it's somewhat vulnerable. If Sinners has its best possible day look for it to steal here. I would have voted for Marty Supreme. Corsets win every other year, I like the 1950s garb and the fun glasses and hats. Lets mix it up some! And not in the "what if we nominated essentially an animated film for Best Costumes" kind of mixing it up. 

 

 

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP:

Frankenstein

Kokuhu

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

The Ugly Stepsister

 

WILL WIN: Frankenstein

ANALYSIS: Always a tough category to call because this one goes outside of the Best Picture films more than any other. I do predict Frankenstein to carry it though, but wouldn't at all be surprised if Ugly Step Sister or Kokuhu steal it based purely on the specific craft enthusiasts. 

 

 

BEST SOUND:

F1

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Sirat

 

WILL WIN: F1

ANALYSIS: Ugh, we get it, cars make noise. Every. Damn. Time. The sound design to One Battle is so unique and so consequential to the film. Sinners and Sirat the same. Is there really much difference between F1's sound and Ford V. Ferrari's? What is so award-worthy? I don't know. Enjoy the statuette I guess.

 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sinners

 

WILL WIN: Sinners

ANALYSIS: Goransson trying to secure his third win while Jonny Greenwood still searches for his first. Jonny may have to keep waiting, though. As much as I love his choices for One Battle, Sinner's score is so classic and powerful, it's kind of hard to deny. I was super excited to see the Bugonia love but we could have had a great crop if Marty Supreme's unconventional but scintillating score cracked the list.

 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

"Dear Me," (Diane Warren) - Diane Warren: Relentless

"Golden," (EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick et al) - KPop Demon Hunters

"I Lied to you," (Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson) - Sinners

"Sweet Dreams of Joy," (Nicholas Pike) – Viva Verdi!

"Train Dreams," (Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner) - Train Dreams

 

WILL WIN: Golden

ANALYSIS: If you read this whole thing you would notice it seemed like I was trying to wrestle some awards away from Sinners and you might get the impression that I don't love the movie, but that's not true. And here I am perplexed as to why Golden seems so nailed on when I Lied to You is the soundtrack to arguably the best scene of the entire year. Its a phenomenal and eclectic sonic experience that is the proudest set piece of legitimate best picture candidate. How is this not being taken more seriously. Golden has won everywhere and I expect it to continue, but for the life of me I am not sure why. Golden is a really good song. But these are movie awards. Give me the song that is used best in the movie it comes from. 

 

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Jurassic World Rebirth

The Lost Bus

Sinners

 

WILL WIN: Avatar: Fire and Ash

ANALYSIS: The original and Way of Water were the closest things we have ever seen to locks at the Oscars. This one feels a little wobbly to me. Not because the effects aren't as good as the previous installments, but because the voters might feel like they have seen this one too many times before. For the Sinners truthers, we could see a big shock. I don't think it will happen, but if it does we could see Sinners break the all time record. 

 

 

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

Butcher's Stain

A Friend of Dorothy

Jane Austen's Period Drama

The Singers

Two People Exchanging Saliva

 

WILL WIN: Two People Exchanging Saliva

ANALYSIS: Oh the shorts categories. How you always make or break Oscar brackets. Haven't seen most. Enjoyed the ones I have. It isn't even entirely my fault. Where do you guys all see theses things? I'll go with the funny name. That strategy actually has a pretty good track record.

 

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT:

Butterfly

Forevergreen

The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Retirement Plan

The Three Sisters

 

WILL WIN: Butterfly

ANALYSIS: Gorgeous. Simply Gorgeous. Haven't had the pleasure of catching them all but I hope Butterfly wins. I will be weirdly emotionally invested in this one. 

 

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

All the Empty Rooms

Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

Children No More: Were and Are Gone

The Devil is Busy

Perfectly A Strangeness

 

    WILL WIN: Children No more: Were and Are Gone

    ANALYSIS: I think it was a criteria to be nominated in this category this year that you have an                 intentionally frustrating name. My pick to win is the most frustrating perhaps. Gotta mean something         right?

There you have it. Watch and enjoy what will surely be a drama filled night!

Ryan Garasich 3/10/26